Our Trakus spotlight series continues with an advanced metrics analysis using Trakus data to identify performances that may be better than visually looked, or putting the trip in perspective using advanced stats.
Gulfstream Park carded two 8.5 furlong races Saturday which is a unusual distance for the unique configuration for the Gulfstream oval. The 4th race allowance featured a visually impressive performance by Top Billing and the Holy Bull Stakes produced an exciting eyeball winner in Cairo Prince.
We start with creating a track profile of the 8.5 furlong distance:
Of the two winners on Saturday, it is interesting to note that Cairo Prince traveled 22 more feet than Top Billing, which if you watch the race Top Billing circled the field late, but in the early part of the race trailed the field while staying close to the rail. Meanwhile Cairo Prince traveled 3 wide down the backstretch and made his move to the lead going 3-wide.
Despite all the talk about traveling more feet, the winner of most races very rarely travels the fewest feet of the race indicating race flow and pace is more important than distance traveled. In the profile above only two winning horses traveled the minimum distance.
Compared to the average distance traveled Cairo Prince and Top Billing were above average, but Cairo’s effort even “topped” Top Billing:
Top Billings performance was pretty similar to most recent winners, trail the field, save ground, make a move going into the turn while running wide. The recent profile of winners shows the six furlong distance from the rail:
Top Billing after trailing early made a sweeping wide move that carried him wider than most recent winners at the six furlong mark.
Overall both were visually impressive efforts. Cairo Prince recorded a faster final time than Top Billing with higher speed figures on all published speed figures by USTimeform, Brisnet and DRF.
The surface played fast on Saturday, but visually in addition to the winners making sweeping wide runs, several horses that placed and showed on this day made wide sweeping runs for the money positions, which is unusual at 8.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park.