The highly anticipated Southwest Stakes of 2014 was a wide open betting affair. With several horses picked as potential upsets by a variety of handicappers. In the end the large on-track crowd at Oaklawn Park made Strong Mandate a solid Even Money Favorite and Tapiture the 2nd favorite. Ride on Curlin and Bourbonize took money from the crowd of 26,000 plus.
The start was rough for quite a few horses. Louies Flower was rank and pulled his jockey to the lead and set a fast opening quarter of 23 and 2, this is fast for a quarter mile at Oaklawn Park in route races and Louies Flower was done after a half mile. Kendall’s Boy ran like a sprinter as well, unable to rate and was pulled along into the brisk pace. You see this every year that’s what separates the men from the boys, being able to relax when the fractions get fast. Strong Mandate broke a little slow and played bumper cars with Ride on Curlin a couple of strides out of the gate. This left him forced wide down the backstretch, at one point was sitting in 7th place before rushing up and securing a 4th place position on the backstretch while running while.
On the inside Tapiture was getting a good trip. Tapiture was 4th early and was a little rank. He wanted to pull at the quarter mile mark of the race but jockey Santana noticeably put the brakes on and held him back for a run as they approached the 6 furlong mark. The move to the lead was quick and decisive and Tapiture opened up quickly by 3 lengths and finished full of run despite drifting out in the stretch. The big favorite at 3/5 on Sunday Don’t Tell Sophia also was shaky in the stretch. My guess is that this surface is very deep and tiring and it will be interesting to see how these horse come back next time. Oaklawn traditionally gets faster through the race meet starting out with 1:15’s in January and running 1:12’s by the end of the meet. With the recent cold weather and constant work on the track surface many horses could see a new surface in the Rebel. Stride extension and gallop out were good for Tapiture.
Strong Mandate assumed 2nd place approaching the turn but had used up a lot of momentum on the backside moving early to establish position after the slow start. After getting bumped Rosario tucked Strong Mandate 6 wide on the backstretch. Then Fire Starter go in his way trying to tuck in. Overall Strong Mandate has yet to run an even race and ration out his speed. This is very inefficient and this is now a developing pattern, he went strong to the lead in his maiden win and strong for the lead in his stakes effort. He has yet to reserve his speed for a more consistent and optimal slow or moderate early. Strong Mandate was all in on the turn and Rosario was pumping him asking him for run going into the stretch. Strong Mandate was noticeably tired as they entered the stretch and it was 0nly his class and speed that carried him to the wire in 2nd well ahead of Ride On Curlin.
Ride on Curlin had an eventful trip as well. He broke wide, was settled back, was 8 wide on the backstretch with no chance marooned on an island. Made a wide move 5 wide down the backstretch into the teeth of the fast quarter. Entering the turn he was in the 2nd flight behind Strong Mandate and then flattened out late, he still ran on and has shown that he is an honest sort and fits at the G2 level at the minimum. Even though he is by Curlin, something still says when you watch him that he is a 7 furlong miler type and will eventually win classy races at those distances. But this was a rough trip and he had 4 lengths of trouble in this race with bad trip and not the most logical race riding.
The pace of the race was solid. 23 and 2 for the quarter which was fast and set by Louie’s Flower who faded badly. Bourbonize broke last and went to the rail down the backstretch to save ground. Half mile was 48, six furlongs in 1:13. Mile in 1:38 and 1:44 and 4. The fractions and final time were solid and Tapiture verified his juvenile form and has a foundation to start 2014. Long workouts had him fit for this race any improvement puts him in top 15 horses for the Derby.
Looking ahead Tapiture, Strong Mandate and Ride on Curlin move on. Bourbonize and Paganol may deserve another chance. Coastline had no visible excuse and needs a class drop to the Spiral and needs get back to using his speed as a weapon. The next time Coastline looks like the speed of the race and secures a lead he will probably be tough, this horse wants no part of stalking. Walt was no match speed wise but rated again today and was wide most of the race and kept on trying down the stretch. On the class drop Walt still has some improvement in him. He’s a stayer and runs hard in every race.
Early look at the Rebel may include: Kobe’s Back, Honor Code, Strong Mandate, Ride on Curlin, Street Strategy. Tapiture may go as indicated but with 20 points and 4 races as a Juvenile might not be the worst thing to skip the race like Candy Boy and Cairo Prince and train up to the Arkansas Derby.