While many handicappers are focusing on the “who is going to win the Derby” the Holy Bull is a $400,000 race. This year’s field matches up the 2012 Juvenile Champion, and promising, developing horses in Frac Daddy, Dewey Squared and Bern Identity. Add in a couple of wild cards and an entry by Barry Rose and you have a solid field to start the South Florida trail to Kentucky.
When last seen Shanghai Bobby was staggering down the Santa Anita stretch getting the final quarter in :26 seconds and managing to hold on for the victory. The early fractions were fast that day, but visually he looked like a beaten horse and the possibility that racing without lasix affected his stretch punch that day as well.
Shanghai Bobby comes into 2013 getting the least amount of respect as a potential derby winner in many years. Reminding many of Favorite Trick who capped off a juvenile championship but was lightly regarded coming into his sophomore campaign.
Orientate on the female side of his family, coupled with the fact that he raced in April of his 2 Year Old season with victories at 4.5 and 5.5 furlongs leans many veteran handicappers to assume distance limitations.
With 2013 yet to play out Shanghai did put together a strong Hopeful and Champagne victories and maybe the Breeders Cup race was the result of a long campaign having raced on April 19 and holding his form until November.
Frac Daddy has a pedigree light on the Male line with Scan Daddy a known producer of precocious and early developing types. Frac Daddy has been working well and with only three races has some upside. Speed Figures are so-so but visually looks imposing.
Bern Identity danced six times as a Juvenile, has amassed over $600,000 in earnings and comes in with a string of solid workouts. Bern Identity takes his track with him and is another who developed early with his career debut coming at 5 furlongs at Belmont Park and breaking his maiden by 13 lengths at Belmont in career start #2.
Dewey Square carries the hopes of Bernadini. Bernadini has developed a string of precocious, classy horses, but none have been able to bring home a Triple Crown, Travers or Breeders Cup Classic torch. Dewey rolled by 11 lengths at Hoosier Park in his debut and then followed up with an allowance win on a track that was playing slow in start #2. His Beyer speed figures are light and he will have to improve to the mid 80’s on Saturday to stay competitive with Shanghai and Bern Identity.
My gut feeling says Shanghai Bobby is a solid horse and may have needed the freshening and gets back on lasix. Todd Pletcher points his best horses for Gulfstream Park and he does well at this meet. Will he win the Derby – that will be answered in May. Expect a strong performance Saturday in the Holy Bull. If Shanghai does not fire his best effort on Saturday. I expect Bern Identity to run a big race. The Holy Bull offers a nice purse and Bern Identity has a lot of factors to like.
I expect a solid pace. The winner will get a Beyer Speed figure of about 90 and the Brisnet Speed Figure of about 95.