The goal has been to provide you with information, help you enjoy the Kentucky Derby trail, and assist with your handicapping for the Kentucky Derby. Everyone needs to have a “Derby” Horse—their ride-or-die selection.
The weekly ratings are designed to keep everyone updated on the Triple Crown Trail. This week, I put my handicapping cap 🫣 on and will try to pick a winner. I can’t pick them all, and I certainly won’t bet them all. This is a fun exercise of picking a winner, some contenders, and horses that are long shots. Handicapping is a personal thing. Reading the notes and incorporating them with your personal opinions and observations is the best way to enjoy the Kentucky Derby.
Pace: I’m projecting a fast pace with four horses expected to contend for the lead. Rodriguez, East Avenue, Citizen Bull, and American Promise have all performed best on the front end. They appear sharp and possess jockeys who excel with speed horses. If this fast pace materializes, this Derby will feature 5-6 off-the-pace runners capable of finishing strong. The post draw includes Rodriguez, Citizen Bull, and American Promise as the three inside speed horses. 🐰
Top Choice:
Sovereignty: (Into Mischief) Bill Mott excels at preparing a horse to perform at its best for a specific race; his horses consistently deliver their career-best performances on racing’s biggest stages. He has won over the Churchill Downs racing surface, and his victory in the Fountain of Youth was a bonus after missing nearly a month of training. His loss in the Florida Derby showcased a solid performance, as an improving horse beat him in Tappan Street that got the jump. He doesn’t need to take the lead; the pace should be fast, and he has shown signs that he craves more distance in every race. He’s capable of winning but won’t be the favorite. He has been a little washy at Churchill Downs, and his final work on Sunday was good but not outstanding. If he is going to win the Kentucky Derby, he will need a good trip and deliver a career-best performance.
Main Contenders: 🎠
Sandman (Tapit) is among the few horses with three lifetime wins. He won sprinting as a juvenile and has developed into a reliable closer with a running style that comes off the pace. He has experienced troubled trips and brings racing experience and a pedigree that should appreciate the added ground. Jose Ortiz rides for the second time, and Mark Casse sends out his 11th Kentucky Derby starter in search of that first win. This horse has fast final fractions, a solid juvenile foundation, and stakes experience. It has also trained well since arriving at Churchill Downs. Sandman fits the class, boasts competitive speed figures, and possesses the ideal running style. This is the horse I’m rooting for, and we haven’t seen a gray win the Derby since 2005. If you bet Sandman, you will know where he is at the entire race. He draws post position seventeen, where runners have never won in forty-five career starts. He has been on the diet of Champions for the last couple of weeks, eating plenty of peppermints and 🥕.
Journalism (Curlin). He is the likely favorite and possesses the speed figures and racing class to make his presence felt. This will be his first race outside California. He qualifies as a contender with fast speed figures on the Thorograph, Brisnet, Beyer, and Ragozin scales. Umberto Rispoli has ridden twice in the Kentucky Derby on 40/1 shots and now has a leading contender on the big stage. He has faced small fields with only one target in all three of his stakes wins. He will now encounter multiple targets in front of him and others shooting from behind. He can win, but I see this as a close race with a fast pace, which usually results in chaos on Derby Day. He is improving visually, which is always a positive sign. He has the speed to make his trip, but he will be in a different pace dynamic with a bigger field in this race. He has a classy pedigree, and distance is not a question. He needs a good trip, but he faces multiple horses with good late pace ratings in this race. He is a strong contender if you prefer California-bred horses and believe they are above average.
Burnham Square: (Liam’s Map) This is a personal favorite, recalling his maiden race at Churchill Downs, where he was flying at the end. He had a dominating win in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park and overcame adversity twice to win the Holy Bull and the Blue Grass. He has a long stride and a home-bred pedigree that excels on the grass. The trainer is very patient, and his recent gallops suggest he is eager to run a big race. He will be rolling late, and his speed figures do not reflect his actual ability. I will play a few Oaks/Derby doubles with him; I like his pedigree and overall form; he has a shot at a fair price.
Grande: (Curlin) The curse of Apollo is real; horses that do not run as two-year-olds are 3 for 74 in the Kentucky Derby. Grande has three lifetime races, all this year: two nine-furlong races and one one-mile race. All three races have been progressive, and he gets the positive jockey upgrade to John Velasquez. Todd Pletcher has 65 Kentucky Derby starters, but his horses do not seem to peak in this race. The pedigree is solid, and overall, he has accomplished several notable feats, including running four wide and six wide on the turn in the Wood Memorial, where he finished second to Rodriguez. I expect him to run well, and he is very usable in all exotic bets. The Thorograph speed figures have assigned him a higher figure in the Wood Memorial than the winner, Rodriguez. Grande was 4-5 Wide in the first turn, then 4-5 wide in the second. He has demonstrated the ability to withstand some pressure and keep grinding; he should be able to work out a good trip.
Exacta & Trifecta Contenders: 💵
Final Gambit (Not This Time): The Ax Man (Luan Machado) has picked up the pieces at Turfway Park several times, and now he goes on “real” dirt for the Kentucky Derby. Brad Cox sends him out for Juddmonte Farms. His final fractions in the Jeff Ruby put him in the mix, and the pedigree should get the distance. He is moving well over the dirt surface and has a lot of energy. We usually get one 20/1 plus odds horse in the Superfecta, which may be that horse this year. I think he benefited from the post-position draw. He can break from the gate and drop back to 16th-17th place, saving ground. He should be able to pass some tiring horses in the last half mile. His final workout on Saturday was a stamina builder, and I anticipate no issues on the dirt. This is a horse you have to take a long look at his past performances to figure out his chances.
American Promise (Justify): There is a lot of buzz surrounding American Promise after his tour de force in the Virginia Derby. He comes in with a career-high speed figure. His two lifetime wins were on the front end, and he is set to add some speed to the race. He is a late May foal and stands at 17 hands tall; this lanky, long-legged horse may be developing into his frame. He has racing experience at Churchill Downs and has participated in nine lifetime races. D. Wayne Lukas has four lifetime Kentucky Derby wins. He is a sleeper for the exotics and a possible win contender. If you’re betting on him in his new form cycle, he has had some time off since the win, so he shouldn’t be “bouncing.” A live contender at a fair price.
Rodriguez (Authentic) This is the biggest mystery in the race. His two dominating wins were wire-to-wire. Mike Smith has ridden and won the Kentucky Derby twice. Bob Baffert trains; he has won the Kentucky Derby six times. The Wood Memorial surface at Aqueduct was speedy on Wood Day, with several horses achieving career-best races. Rodriguez was ridden aggressively to secure the lead. I’m unsure he will get an easy lead in this race. His final workouts were impressive, and his pedigree features a mix of speed and stamina influences, with the mare having raced in Germany. He is from the first crop of Authentic, who won the Derby in 2020. This horse has high variance potential; he could win or finish 10th. The plan is to try to wrestle the lead from the other speed and then slow down the pace, which works in a smaller field. However, the pressers have some class in this race, and they may not relent easily. The inside draw may force his hand, and I expect him to be part of the pace battle.
Coal Battle: Lonnie Briley is calling the shots for this four-time stakes winner, who has victories throughout the heartland, including Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. He may have moved too soon in the Arkansas Derby and benefited from a fast pace in the Rebel Stakes. His speed figures need improvement, but he should have a good trip since he possesses tactical speed and boasts multiple wins and racing experience. This would be a win for the little guy. Mine That Bird was the last horse to roll in at Giant Odds for a smaller barn.
Luxor Cafe: From the land of the rising sun, this Japan contender enters with a stakes win; his “projected” speed figures and final fractions suggest he can finish in the top eight. He receives a jockey boost from an international rider with a flair for the big stage. Several American dirt runners influence the pedigree. He arrived late at Churchill Downs and had to go through quarantine last week. He appeared a little “washed out” on the track after his morning jog on Friday. This week, we will have to monitor training to see if he can improve his on-track body language. Japan seeks its first Kentucky Derby winner with zero wins in eight attempts. 🗾
Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion takes the blinkers off after six races, which is an unusual equipment change, and gets a jockey in Martin Garcia, who has not ridden in the Kentucky Derby in 10 years. Bob Baffert trains this speed horse, which may be even fitter after taking some time off following its win in the Robert Lewis. He has several positive indicators, but finishing 4th in his final prep is a significant negative. The rail was not the place to be on Santa Anita Derby day, as there were no wire-to-wire wins in five dirt races. The injury to Tappan Street benefits Citizen Bull the most, as it softens up the mid-pace pressure. I’m still not convinced that Citizen Bull will rate in this race. He drew the #1 post position, which is probably the worst post. He most likely has to use some energy to break from the gate. With blinkers off, this could cause some congestion in the first turn. If you are a Citizen Bull believer, you will get paid! 🐂
Baeza (McKinze): He ran second in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that, he dominated a maiden win; he comes in lightly raced, and has only raced once as a juvenile. He is another who has been facing small fields out west and will face a more daunting task in Louisville. Flavien Prat is the jockey, and he has never ridden this horse. The public steam is high on this horse, but his overall body of work is lacking, and the California form has some questions to be answered. Fair odds are probably 20/1, and he might be lower than that, based on his second to Journalism, and getting the services of a top jockey.
Longshots:
Chunk of Gold (Preservationist): Ran his way into Louisville with the money, finishing in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. He took advantage of a rail trip in the Risen Star. He has run in fast-paced races and will likely lay back, then make a run going into the stretch. 🪙
East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro): He woke up in the Blue Grass Stakes with a front-running effort and was nailed in the final stride by Burnham Square. He has had troubled trips; he stumbled at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He chased a fast pace in the Risen Star. He finally seems back on track, has the pedigree, and gets a jockey switch to Manny Franco. He will be a long shot and will most likely be on the lead, or near the lead, early in the race.
Tiztastic (Tiz the Law): He may have benefited from a fast pace and brilliant ride for Joel Rosario in his last race. He has had several races with above-average efforts. He has racing experience, and veteran jockey and trainer Steve Asmussen is 0/26 in the Kentucky Derby. He has had several races with troubled trip lines, experiencing trouble, but overall, he comes in fresh. His racing experience and new running style should have him near the back of the pack early, and he should be the type of horse that will keep running. If you think the pace will be hot and have a pace collapse, he is the type of runner to include in trifectas and superfectas.
Publisher: (American Pharoah) He is winless after running second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. Steve Asmussen sends this one out, and his recent work was better than Tiztastic. He is another who has a closing running style, and veteran jockey Irad Ortiz rides for the first time, seeking his first Kentucky Derby win alongside trainer Steve Asmussen. 📗
Longshot Contenders:
Admire Daytona (Drefong): Ran a demanding race in the UAE Derby and survived a three-horse scrum to the finish line. He shipped early. Luxor Cafe defeated him twice in Japan, and the UAE Derby speed figure is low. He had to ship after the demanding race and may start regressing. 🏯
Flying Mohawk: Ran second on the synthetic surface in the Jeff Ruby. He is fit and is training well. In the long term, he will likely be more of a miler and mid-distance runner on the track. His current form fits at the graded stakes level, but distance concerns and his overall running style at ten furlongs probably put him close to a fast pace. ✈️
Render Judgment: Entered on Saturday after the injury to Tappan Street. He ran evenly in the Blue Grass and was one of the few horses to close late in the Virginia Derby. He has multiple stakes attempts, and his overall speed figures are holding steady to declining. The added distance and jump in class do not seem to be improving his chances. Julien Leparoux has been named to ride; this will be his first time on Render Judgment. Brian Hernandez, the go-to rider for McPeek, has been committed to Burnham Square. Ken McPeek is going for back-to-back Kentucky Derby wins with the son of Blame.
Owen Almighty: His best race was the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs; the pace was fast that day, and he battled the length of the stretch. He went wire to wire in the Tampa Bay Derby with the slowest pace figures on the Kentucky Derby Trail. In the Blue Grass, he stepped up in class and faded after chasing fast fractions. He is a front-running horse who runs best with slow fractions and will not get an easy lead in this race. The ten-furlong distance may be too demanding for him at the Grade One level. Post Position twenty was not a good draw; he will be wide down the backstretch, and changing his running style to come off the pace is usually not a winning strategy.
Neoequos: The Mighty Neoequos gets his shot at Derby Glory. He is a sprinter/miler who stretched out in the Florida Derby. He chased an average pace set by Madaket Road and battled on gamely down the stretch. I’m not sure what the plan is. He doesn’t have the speed to outrun other contenders, and he doesn’t have the late pace numbers to impact the closing fractions in the race. He is best suited for long-term success as a sprinter or miler. Flavien Prat gets the first call on Neoequos; if he scratches, then he will ride Baeza.