Warning this post will contain as many horse racing cliches as possible!
The Test of Champions this year treats us to a full field. This field is not “great” but it is useful and competitive from a betting standpoint. This race is either the Belmont Stakes or the rematch of the Maiden Special Weight Race last year between Orb, Freedom Child and Revolutionary.
Orb is the morning line favorite and deservingly so. But he is also vulnerable at low odds. Which doesn’t sound right but can happen. Orb has accomplished the most and figures to get the distance. But he also could be feeling the effects of a long campaign having been in steady training since January and run in the first two legs of the Classics. His Derby win was more of a “mirage” than authoritative. He loved the Slop and he benefitted from a pace meltdown and for him got “the wide trip” that he actually likes to have. His Preakness was flat and could go either way in the Belmont. Expect him to run a good race. If the pace is contentious should benefit again or if the track is sloppy he moves up. Likely favorite sits chilly and pushes the Go button on the turn with The Truth in the saddle.
Oxbow: Preakness winner for the Bluegrass Boys. This horse has also been campaigned hard, Put everything together in the Preakness. Uncontested Lead, moderate pace, turn of foot into the turn, and grit down the lane and galloped out full of run. Has the pedigree to run in Classic races but his Derby effort was a tiring effort followed by a strong Preakness race. Belmont Stakes does not figure to be a good spot for him. He won’t get easy lead and I expect the bulk of the speed to bunch up on the turn, Unlimited Budget, Overanalyze, Freedom Child, and Palace Malice roll into play. Oxbow may have to move earlier than he wants to. I have bet Oxbow for a few races now and cashed. I think Saturday he is the play against to win and finish out of the Exacta. Based on odds the risk/reward has already been maxed. I went to the Wedding, will pass on the Funeral.
Overanalyze: His every other race pattern is Brett Saberhagen like. Alternates wins with losses. His wins are big and impressive, but not necessarily fast. Workout have been energetic and seems to be holding form. Pedigree is suspect for 12 furlongs but if he is ridden exactly the way he was ridden at Oaklawn Park and makes one late run has a shot to be part of the superfecta. Every other race this race is the “every”.
Freedom Child: Ladies and Gentleman the one horse with upside! Oxbow and Orb have peaked. Frac Daddy and Will Take Charge have regressed. Vyjack and Golden Soul were never good enough. Five of the horses are eligible for NW of 2. Freedom Child is improving and getting good in a hurry. Tremendous Upside for the “leggy” Mailibu Moon colt. Freedom Child showed potential when leading every step of the way in a one mile maiden race at Belmont. A horse named Orb won the race and something called Revolutionary was third. Not a Bad race. Off the layoff and marooned from an outside post, Freedom Child ran a game third at Gulfstream Park in February. Freedom Child Dominated a Gulfstream Park maiden race and then went into the Wood. This is where it gets interesting. He was declared a non-started in the wood. The outrider was still holding Freedom Child when the gates opened and the start of the race cost Freedom Child a minimum of 30 feet and all the momentum, making a long sustained wide move, Freedom Child amazingly was 5th going into the turn before weakening late and being declared a non-starter. Two strong workouts and a muddy track later he entered the Peter Pan with little fan-fare. A dominating front-running “mudnificient” performance later he emerged as a top 4 Belmont selection. His recent workouts have been long slow gallops and he is a big strong horse growing into a routers frame. Twelve furlongs is always a guess. But watching his last two workouts at NYRA shows a shiny coat, lots of energy. Win or lose this horse should be a factor in all route races for three year olds this year. Let it rain and let Freedom Ring come Saturday afternoon.
Revolutionary: Consistent, yet brilliant at times, has serious problems with the gate and the Belmont race should suit him perfect. Should lay back and make a run entering the turn and his running style is perfect for this year’s Belmont field. When everyone bunches up and fades on the turn, Revolutionary will be kicking in and making a run. Has an interesting speedy pedigree, but has the body and looks of a pure routers. Still a little room to get better but needs to space his races. With 5 weeks from the derby and 6 weeks break from the Louisiana Derby expect another top effort for the son of War Pass on sloppy or fast track. One of three most likely winners.
Palace Malice set the insane pace in the Derby with blinkers and Mike Smith. The Blinkers go off but Mikey stays on. Wish it was the other way around. Son of Curlin has lost 5 straight races. He was out-finished late at Keeneland, was troubled in the Louisiana Derby, had no excuse in the Risen Star. I think he is better than his derby indicates and expect a top 6 finish for some reason. Pace should be reasonable and he is a grinder who always keeps running.
Unlimited Budget: This filly is sitting on a good race, but her running style doesn’t fit with this year’s Belmont, not enough speed to break away, she can lay back and I expect her to possibly lay 7-8 lengths off the pace and make a run. If ridden that way could make the move down the stretch, if she tries to run into the mid race fractions and make a move going into the far turn, I expect a slow fade down the stretch. Rosie rushed Mark Valeski too soon in the Met Mile, has been riding ok of late, not sure she is the best fit. Odds will be lower than they should be because of Rosie and she is a filly. Not for me in the Double and Pic 3 and Pic 4 because she will be overplayed in proportion to her actually winning the race.
My top choice is Freedom Child, Revolutionary is my second choice and Orb is my 3rd pick. Yes the Maiden Race Trifecta November 24th is my Belmont Stakes Trifecta.