Overview: A field of fourteen is among the entries for the Risen Star. The first 100-point races on the 2023 Kentucky Derby Trail. Shippers from Delta Downs, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita, give this a regional feel as Victory Formation, the winner of the Smarty Jones, ships in and will be the most likely favorite from post position thirteen. Harlocap is one of three entries trained by Steve Asmussen. The speed figures have been on the slow side the past couple of weeks, with the Holy Bull winner – Rocket Can, recording an 82 and Sam F Davis winner, Litigage, a 76 on the Beyer scale. We are still looking for a breakout performance in 2023 from the rising contenders.
Risen Star Analysis:
Sun Thunder dominated a maiden race, two starts back, before spinning his wheels in the slop last race at Oaklawn Park chasing Arabian Knight. A dry track and long Fairgrounds stretch should be more beneficial.
Victory Formation is three for three, winning at three different racetracks, and now ships to the Fairgrounds off a layoff following the Smarty Jones. He keeps Flavien Prat as his Jockey, and despite the outside post, he has the earliest speed in the race. Most likely, he clears the field into the first turn. At that point, fractions and the overall race flow determine how far he can take his speed. He is fast, but the Smarty Jones was a walkover with no real challenge.
Tapit’s Conquest is likely to improve. He broke his maiden at the second start of his career and the second start of his juvenile season. The Risen Star will be the second start of his three-year-old campaign and had an inside trip last race when losing to Determinedly. He most likely will sit midpack and try to make an impact down the stretch if his stable-mate Victory Formation can’t get the nine furlongs.
Determinedly won the allowance race on the undercard of the Lecomte Stakes, but he was probably second best that day, with Tapit’s Conquest getting the challenging luck trip. His best races have been on the front end, and he will face more speed bunched up early in this race. He is most likely to fade first.
Betting: Most likely, one or two horses scratch from this race; with the bulky field, there are plenty of opportunities this time of year. The connections are popular with the favorite Victory Formation, which is my top selection. He will be a short price and has the most speed and a robust set of works since the easy win at Oaklawn Park. Straight exactas over Tapit’s Conquest and Sun Thunder. Take a shot with Tapit’s Conquest if you want to play more of a price.