2014 Mile Breeders Cup Preview

A full field of optimistic horses awaits the gate this year for the Mile.  Toronado ships in from Europe with a big resume.  Anodin slips in with a familiar pedigree.  Meanwhile Smokin Joe Talamo and Obviously try for a 3rd time.

The Skinny:

Toronado fits at the distance and has races that will put him as a 5/2 favorite in a race like this.  But some of his losses are a bit perplexing.  He’s ran in a string of small fields, so taking a short price in a 12 horse field and over the year’s we have seen many a Euro not fire on this day.  Beat Verrazano one race and lost to Kingman in a 4 horse field.

Anodin has run in 7 grade 1’s and is a full brother to Goldikova.  He has some tough losses and think he usually runs a good race.  Needs to get outside as he has a tendency to look for cover and get trapped at the rail.  Clear run and he may be gone. His best performances are capable of winning this and he always seems to be in form.  Just needs a clear run on the outside.

Seek Again is not really a miler but 10 furlongs is not his game either.  Would love a fast pace and loves to run inside horses and be near the rail.  Working out a clear run from the rail is tough and he may not be able to get first jump on Anodin or Toronado.  Will try to hang with the pack and catch a horse lugging out down the stretch and get room at the rail.  Recent work is good and the longer races he ran this year may help if it becomes a stretch duel.

Obviously has speed and has faded the last 2 years.  But this year on his game, loves a hard, fast course.  Capable of running 1:08 and change and trying to put the field away turning for home.  Last race he broke slow and then rushed and faded late.  Have a feeling he may be sitting on a big race and not sure someone may go after him until the half mile pole.  Speed is dangerous and price is right.  He seems dangerous in this spot and if ridden aggressively he could lead them on a merry chase.

Kaigun runs his race and can compete on his best day.  Pace dependent and trip dependent but may be primed to run a strong race.

Toms Tribute has run 3 of 4 races and has improved over the summer.  Has enough speed to lay close and running out of his home track.  Sharp workout pattern, usable, but you can’t take them all.  Last race was impressive and prefers to make a move going into the turn which may get him first jump.

Mustajeeb is a very live horse.  Loved his G3 win in a 23 horse field and has carried weight.  Lightly raced 3-year-old trained by a master in Dermot Weld.  Must use in all exotics.  A mix of 7 furlong and mile races should have him fit for an American mile.  Defeated Gordon Lord Byron in last race and also chased Kingman in a 11 horse field.

Veda is an interesting 3-year-old filly, who has run in graded races and loves the 1 mile distance.  6 races all at one mile in her career.  Has faced full fields and run best on soft and firm going.

Karakontie is a 3 year olds with some strong connections.  Another horse who loves 7 furlongs and an American mile is the ideal distance.  Has run in 4 Grade 1’s in 8 career races and 4 for 8 lifetime.  He has some grit and last 2 races are not an indication of his true ability.  Live at a price.

The Choice:

The Euro’s look tough, but I like Mustajeeb, Karakontie, Obviously and Tom’s Tribute all should be decent prices and offer value in the exotics.  This is a hard race to really get a read, so I’m treading lightly in this race.

Tosses:

Toronado has faced short fields too many times, facing a fast pace, and full field with a short price he will be an underlay and prefer several others in the race.  Half these Euro Milers flop and usually it’s the “Good” ones.