The New York road to the Wood Memorial begins with the Jerome. The distance of 1 mile 70 yards attracts a few shippers from the 2nd tier tracks and the Big A winter warriors have stayed home in search of some graded type.
2016 Jerome Field
Silent Assassin Drew the rail for trainer Nicholas P. Zito. This son of the deceased Harlan’s Holiday broke his maiden in 3rd lifetime start last outing. Prompted a very slow pace that day and would need to improve both his early speed and transfer that form to dirt. The Jerome will be his first dirt start.
In Equality picked up a win on the Aqueduct surface last out and seems to be coming into his own, seems to be setting into the 85 Brisnet speed figure which would need a few horses to regress to win this race.
Donegal Moon showed speed in the Remsen before fading late. He is capable of being a pressure and may get a lot less pressured trip in the Jerome. Pedigree says distance not an issue. Not sure what the “Upside” is with this horse, but in the Jerome he fits with the field.
Flexibility is the most likely favorite who has run 2nd twice to Moyhamen who is the current Kentucky Derby favorite. Flexibility has speed, but is a not “need the lead” type. Been gritty in Grade 2 races and takes a class drop today. Has the top overall speed rating and the Remsen may have been a faster than shows race. The track was very slow the day of the Remsen. Based on class figures to be even money or less in this spot.
Vorticity back to back victories have stamped this son of Distorted Humor on the improve. Picked up a maiden victory in a strong maiden race at Aqueduct over next out winner Condo King and highly regarded Wheels Up Now. Laurel Victory was a strong pace pressing effort and defeated an odds-on favorite in that race. Should like the distance and speed and pace figures put him near the lead and able to pressure Flexibility at the 6 furlong mark. Contender.
Condo King has shown talent in all 3 of his career races and has strong Big A connections with trainer Rudy Rodriguez and owner Michael Dubb who has done well lately. Most recently Condo King was game in victory in a Maiden Special Weight race and brings some sped and pace pressure to the race. Condo King is also entered in the Lost in the Fog Stakes on Friday and may scratch out of this spot. If Condo King goes in this spot, he may be the most likely pace setter at the 4F mark.
Bird of Trey is a cleverly named son of Birdstone who is 5 for 5 in the money including a 7 length romp in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. Running style is near the lead or on the lead. He is another who could challenge for the lead with Vorticity, and Flexibility. Has a recent race and good current form, small improvement puts him in a scrum at the finish line with the top contenders.
Let Me Go First is trained by Blane Servis who is the son of John Servis who trains Bird of Trey. The young conditioner sent out this gelding to a victory at Parx in his last start. The pace was slow that day. Another pace pressure who has some distance breeding in his pedigree. Moves up in class in this spot, but has faced full fields in all 3 of his lifetime starts.
King Kranz is entered in the Lost in the Fog Stakes on Friday and is expected to run in that race and scratch.
The Jerome Selection:
The pace should be honest with a solid to average pace. Pace and jockey tactics could make this race as one of 4 horses are capable of showing speed and sticking around to the finish. Bird of Trey may set the pace. Flexibility may try to rate in this spot. He has the class edge, but could be vulnerable if the fractions are too slow. Flexibility is the selection in a contentious race. Vorticity matches up well pace wise and overall speed would be the alternate selection.