Old Hilltop in Baltimore for the Iconic middle Jewel of the Triple Crown. A bulky field of 13 has lined up to test the demanding “Tight” turns of Pimlico.
The Field:
War of Will: Has mixed form, Kentucky Derby run was a clean trip early and then a troubled trip entering the far turn entering the stretch. Had issues in the Louisiana Derby that contributed to that non-effort. Overall I’m not sure he wants 10 furlongs on the dirt and can’t recommend at the 4/1 price.
Bourbon War: Needs a solid pace to set up his best run. He adds blinkers and retains his regular rider, Irad Ortiz. Look for him to trail the field early and hope a contested or hot pace develops and work out a clean trip from the inside position. Works have been consistent and ships north off a series of several works. Contender
Warrior’s Charge: Super impressive visually in both his wins this year and had a strong race with a huge pace collapsed on February 18th. He has a high cruising speed and runs through the wire with sharp gallop outs. He is by Munnings, which should mean a speedy pedigree, but he has class, is in fine form and should be close to the pace if not the speed of the speed. I expect a strong run and is a significant contender.
Improbable: Likely favorite has ran evenly in all three of his starts this year. Last two races were on sloppy tracks. Think he is going to be a sharp mile horse on dirt or turf this year. He may not want this distance and has shipped twice this spring to Oaklawn and now runs 3rd race in five weeks. Seems to be entered – as an afterthought.
Owendale: Fast Lexington performance with a sweeping move that was timed perfectly on the turn to pass all the tiring leaders. Has shown talent and may be getting good at the right time. He is by Into Mischief so this is his time to shine. They win early and if he is going to get 10 furlongs now is the time.
Market King: Overall has declining form and is coming off the vet’s list on late notice. Pass
Alwaysmining: Has bullied softer opponents at short prices. Six straight wins, but will probably be bet lower than his actual chances. Contender but lots of questions and not one I will be using.
Signalman: Is better than he looks on paper. Worked forwardly to the Bluegrass and was forced to run close to the pace. Expect him to stay midpack and try to make one run. He is a big horse who needs to make one run — contender at a price.
Bodeexpress: Is winless in six career starts and form seems to be regressing. Not on my tickets.
Everfast: Has lost his last 3 races by 10, 15 and 18 lengths with no real excuses. Has lost to Signalman, Bourbon War and Knicks Go! Not improving, no upside.
Laughing Fox: Strong finisher has a smooth stride and is by Union Rags who is throwing some talented runners. Will be running late and is usable in trifectas and superfectas.
Anothertwisafate: Front wraps on for a first time in last race after running on hard Sunland surface that was blazing fast. Rough trip the previous two tracks, but was defeated. Turf/Synthetic horses can run one or two big races on dirt. He may be ready to go off form, and 12th post position is not ideal. I will pass on this horse.
Win Win Win is a son of Hat Trick with a catchy name. He is probably a sprinter and with the 13th post, he will have to use some of his zip to establish position. Overall I question his ability to go 10 furlongs and if he is really a grade one horse.
The Selection:
Bourbon War and Warrior’s Charge are the top two selection in this corner. Bourbon War should get a hot pace and Warrior’s Charge may be the horse in the best form right now. Signalman and Owendale are usable as longshots if you want to consider others.