An oversubscribed field of 16 horses has entered the 2019 Kentucky Oaks. The key to this year’s race may be pace and post position.
The 2019 Oaks Field
Out for a Spin – The daughter of the speedy Hard Spun has won 3 of 4 races with the only loss to the talented Tasting the Stars. Ashland Stakes was forced into the pace pressure role and responded gamely, putting away Jaywalk and holding off Restless Rider. She can stalk and can save ground from the rail. She should settle 5-6 lengths off the pace, and a sloppy track may move her up. She is cycling up to a big race on all the speed figures and can come off the pace.
Chocolate Kisses – Looks like the only confirmed closer in the race and chase fast fractions and defeated Motion Emotion in the Honeybee Stakes. She was closer to the pace in the Ashland and retreated late. Best tactics in this race are to lay 10-15 lengths behind and make one run. Long-term she may do best on the turf, but the distance is right, the Honeybee showed she has some grit. Ashland is a toss-out, worth taking a long look.
Lady Apple – This filly has gotten good at the right time. Three straight impressive wins and like the move is going inside horses at the rail in the last race showing some grit in the lane to catch a couple of talented fillies. She has been bet every start of her career and comes from an active female family of winners. The pedigree says late developer and she is a player at a square price in this race. Lot’s to like with connections, pedigree, jockey and recent form.
Bellafina – The 2/1 morning line favorite has six wins in 8 starts but lost by nine lengths in the Breeders Cup Juvenile after not able to get the lead early. She has faced weak fields in all her wins and has faced small areas. She has to ship, run on a new surface and meet a lot more pace pressure to get the win. She is capable, but not sure if any upside at nine furlongs. She has the speed let’s see if she has any grit.
Flor de La Mar – Has run evenly in all her races and seems to be training forwardly. Longshot is probably best as a closer and will sit 7-8 lengths back in this spot with Rosario in the saddle. Capable of running in the money if she gets the right trip.
Positive Spirit – Lost in the Gazelle and has not run back to her Demoiselle victory. The Demoiselle was on a slow surface with slow fractions and final time. She is not improving and hard to imagine any scenario in which she wins. She does not deserve to be in the race with the two also-eligibles substantially better than here. The definition of Clown Show.
Jaywalk – The 2-year old champion has not shown the raw speed or the form that saw her dominate the Frizette and BC Juvenile Filly Race. Has a sprinting pedigree and has been flat in both races, hard to imagine her turning it around in this spot. She was very fast last year and dominated. Recent form in races, pre-race and post-race, do not indicate any form reversal is imminent.
Motion Emotion – Raw speedball will set the pace; she has the green light from the eight post position and will try to lead them all the way. She faces other speed pressure, and the pace is fast will not have anything for the drive. Reliable horse but race flow and different speed outside her may not be the best case scenario.
Liora – Hard to identify her running style, she is slower than several others and may benefit if the race collapses. She is hoping to establish a position and see what the fractions are.
Champagne Anyone – Front-running track bias carried her to victory at Gulfstream Park. Has run competitively in all her starts, but looks better on paper. I’m not sold she wants 9 furlongs, and last race may have been the honeymoon at 8/1.
Jeltrin – Captured the Davona Dale with a hard-fought victory and has “Trained” up to the Oaks. That is code for she didn’t want to run again and lose, so they opted to take the easy way out. Usually not a good sign if your connections are afraid to run.
Street Band – Picked up the win with a high-speed figure in the FG Oaks, when Serengetti Empress set a fast pace and then stopped, ran wide and finished with a strong gallop out. Sophie Doyle is in the saddle and should be fit after a series of races has her in shape for the nine furlongs. Another that should be able to come off the pace in this race.
Serengetti Empress – Has some dirty “Form” after bleeding in the last race. Substantial works have her on edge, she is talented and is the speed of the speed, I expect to see her on the engine, and if she doesn’t tangle with Motion Emotion too much, she is outside that speed and inside Restless Rider. She should lead into the stretch. Let the Big Dog Eat!
Restless Rider – Draws outside and has just one prep in a bizarre campaign. May have been against the bias in the Ashland. Solid juvenile form and has worked with Signalman, a derby contender on several occasions. Has raw speed and the focus has been to get stamina into the works. Decisions are coming from the outside post.
Dunbar Road is the 2nd best horse and would be 5/1 if she draws into the race. She currently sits on the Also Eligible list. Strong Contender if she gets in after a dominating maiden win and then chases against a front running bias in last race. Key player if she can draw into the race. Lot’s of talent.
Point of Honor is a closer who is also on the also-eligible list. She is licking her chops to get in and wants a speed duel. Another player if in the race.
The Pace:
Serengetti Empress, Jaywalk, Bellafina and Motion Emotion are all capable of going for the lead. Motion Emotion has been consistent at popping the gate and establishing position. Most likely Serengetti Empress and Motion Emotion are the pacesetter after four furlongs. Jaywalk will be forced to come from behind and with suspect form is vulnerable.
Restless Rider is another who has speed, but draw and race flow dictate she waits. Chocolate Kisses benefits the most from the potentials for a fast or contested pace. If Point of Honor gets in, she is also a threat to come from behind. Bellafina doesn’t need the lead, but she will have to navigate through the speed and time her move. Her overall form is not that dominant, and nine furlongs is going to be a reach.
Overall the pace looks both fast and contested which means a good trip may determine the winner.
The Selection:
Serengetti Empress in this corner, opening up on the turn and holding off Out for a Spin and Chocolate Kisses.