A sizzling matchup awaits in California as McKinzie takes on two-time stakes winner and Grade one winner Bolt d’Oro in the San Felipe. Possible rain looms over California as a stable field has assembled with some horses Knocking at the Door.
Contenders:
Bolt d’Oro a lot has been written about this horse for several months. The critical facts as it pertains to this race. He has broken slowly in three of four runs. He broke slowly in a workout last month. He has been sluggish early in a few of his works. His most recent work on March 5th was finally a fast workout of a classy horse. The goal is the Santa Anita Derby and if it rains he may scratch and go to Arkansas. He may have peaked in the Front Runner his speed figure in that race downgraded from a higher number. Medaglia d’Oro colts have struggled on the main track for a few years with most of them having short careers. The trainer has indicated, and workouts are showing that they want to take him off the pace. Not sure if this strategy is the best, because if he spots McKinzie 2-3 lengths, it may be over. As Yogi Berra once said “The Future ain’t what it used to be”
Lombo has been a fun horse to develop the last few months. Ran three times in 33 days so was pushed aggressively and was able to wire the Robert Lewis. Faces much better horses in this race and also the race flow and early fractions will be much faster.
Ayacara was running late in the Lewis and son of violence is bred both sides of the pedigree for an off-track. Best chance to is to hope for a speed duel or the pace flow favors tilts in favor of closers. At this point, he is still improving but faces a tall task in this race.
Kanthaka benefited from an insane speed duel in the San Vincente. He was starting to make his move before the pace melt-down in that race and like the stride and extension on this horse. Last work was terrific visually and on the clock. Seems to be improving and won the most anticipated maiden race of the meet on an opening day at Santa Anita MSW. Has progressed in all three of his starts and stretches out against top company. He has a pedigree that says a mile may be his top, but I like his races and the way he is coming into the race. A small chance to upset if everything went his way. Race flow is not in his favor.
Peace throws out the Robert Lewis in which he was bet heavily and never fired. He figures to improve dramatically in this spot. He may have had a cough or fever in the Robert Lewis as several horses from that barn were scratched that week. His workout pattern has not missed a beat and likes the six-furlong drill on February 25th for stamina. Odds will be long, and the jockey switch may wake him up. His second-lifetime race has been his best race so far and if he can get back to that form may be better on the track than on paper. Blinkers are off for this race which should put him into the race after six furlongs.
McKinzie fast, fit and ready to rumble in this spot. Works have been frequent, prolonged and he has been getting drilled to perfection since a dominating Sham Stakes score on January 6th. Highly rated and showed grit in the Los Al Futurity. He showed a full sustained run in his debut. He should love the mud, and I don’t expect him to lose in this spot. A soft pace, the possibility of being the lone speed and a sloppy surface should only help the cause.
Fair Odds
McKinze 6/5
Peace 8/1
Kanthaka 4/1
Bolt d’Oro 4/1
The Selection:
McKinzie looks sharp in this spot. Kanthaka is capable of winning if the top choice falters. The betting strategy is to bet against Bolt d’Oro who may have peaked last year as a two-year-old. McKinze looks like the long speed on a soft pace which smells like victory in this spot.