It’s time for Rebel Yell in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The beefy $900,000 purse has attracted a field of eleven. Solomini is the morning line favorite with Magnum Moon and Sporting Chance likely to garner some wagering support.
Contenders:
Title Ready ran an impressive race in allowance win, showing speed from the outset and running the favorite into defeat. The speed figure was an improvement from his last race as a 2-year-old, and he has the foundation of two-turn tracks mixed in with some fast sprints. Jose Ortiz jumps aboard, and the pedigree says the distance should not be a problem. Drew the inside post and had a tactical running style.
Curlin’s Honor has shown a lot of grit in both his races emerging from a stretch duel in his debut and then weaved his way through traffic in his most recent start. Has been working steadily since late January and 2nd off the layoff could fire a dramatic shot in this race. The odds will be right on this smooth-striding colt.
Solomini will be favored in this spot and will be an underlay for a couple of reasons. First trainer Bob Baffert wins about 70% of the races when he ships to Oaklawn. He also exits a race with McKinzie. I think he may have peaked last year and not sure about the upside. He was beaten in two of his four runs as a juvenile. He has also received the benefit of a long stretch at Los Alamitos. Physically he has a horrible stride and lousy leg action that will come into play sooner, rather than later. He can win if all the other contenders just aren’t that good. Most likely I don’t see a lot of progression from last year.
Magnum Moon dominated a Maiden race and then went to Tampa and put the full court press on a weak field. Has looked very smooth in both his starts while winning in hand. Lots of upside for the son of Malibu Moon and seems to have a couple of gears and versatile running style. Look for him to be on the lead or close to the point from the opening bell. Has lots of ability, expecting an all or none effort. Most likely he runs well and wins and stamps himself a top-four contender or finishes off the board.
Higher Power steps up in class and has shown the ability to come off the pace. Pedigree and overall ability indicate a chance to jump up in this spot and the odds will be right. He looks slow on paper and needs some pace to run his best race.
Sporting Chance showed a lot of speed and talent last year. Ran a decent third off the layoff and now faces a tough field. Been working forwardly and most likely could be the speed of the speed. I expect a strong effort in this spot, and he should be fit. He has class and quality, and this distance seems like the best fit. Pace and fractions will determine how long he can stand the heat.
High North ran a better than looked effort in the Risen Star. Was close to the pace on the inside and ran on in even effort off the layoff. Now he draws outside, and he won his maiden race from the 12 post position. He is going to be an extended price and had a rough trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Most likely to outrun his odds and should like the short Oaklawn stretch.
Zing Zang is a closer waiting for some pace. He is a “stretch” closer meaning he does all his running in the stretch, needs the race to break precisely his way, but he will win a Stales race at some point.
Combatant consistently runs his race and is another who faced two runaway winners in back to back races. In the Southwest, he ran in the slop and made a full menacing move. Here is another contender in a big field.
Fair Odds
Solomini 5/1
Higher Power 10/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Combatant 9/1
Title Ready 15/1
The Selection:
Solomini is a horse that I will be betting against in this spot at a low price. He is favored for all the wrong reasons in this spot. Title Ready is the top selection with Zing Zang and Combatant outside shots. Spread broad and deep in this race. I do feel the winner will run a strong race and this is a talented crop of three-year-olds.