2018 Kentucky Derby Preview

A deep and talented group has assembled for the 144th run for the roses at Churchill Downs.  Undefeated Justify and Magnum Moon top a vast group of contenders including Bolt d’Oro and two-year-old champion Good Magic.

Firenze Fire

He is off form, recent works have not inspired, he is by a sprint sire, and his best race was last October.  Most recent performances have him losing to several of the top contenders.  If you like slow horses, who are off form, then this is the horse for you.  Place Your Bets!

Free Drop Billy

He has faced the best of this crop in several races, and his record is under the radar.  He lost to Sporting Chance in the Hopeful in a strong performance.  In the Holy Bull, he ran second to Audible who ran a “freak” race that day.  Closed in the Bluegrass while losing to Good Magic.  Like the recent works and the son of Union Rags strikes a pretty pose on the track.  Not the most likely winner, but better than a lot of contenders in this race.  Debut win was at Churchill Downs and could be another horse for course.  Could be live for a 3rd – through 5th place finish at an enormous price.

Promises Fulfilled

The speed horse of the race was able to wire the Fountain of Youth and then was “Fried” in the Florida Derby setting a fast pace and dueling with Strike Power early in the race before losing by 35 lengths.  He has quick running lines in his past performances.  Promises Fulfilled noticeably looked like lost weight going into the Florida Derby and is one of the smallest horses in the field.  Most likely he can’t get the distance but does bring some speed to the party.  Final workout he looked relaxed and seems to be regaining some of the early-winter energy he had down in Florida.  He may be one of the keys to the race.  He may not win, but how fast he goes and how long he goes “Fast” may determine who the eventual winner is.

Flameaway

The “Gritty” horse who has over-achieved in his past races.  He won as the lone speed in the Sam F Davis, he benefitted from slow fractions in the Tampa Bay Derby and then drew a sharp rail on Bluegrass day.  The Triple Crown of great trips will end on derby day facing more horses with speed, bulkier field and overall a more talented field that will apply pressure at all points of the race.  He is a toss on my tickets in all positions and most likely to finish worst than 10th.

Audible

Lots of contradicting opinions about this son of Into Mischief who sports a lifetime record of four wins in five starts while winning the Florida Derby by three lengths.  He has run back to back 99 Beyer Speed figures, and his late Brisnet pace figure in the Holy Bull was a dominating performance.  The “Haters” point out that he is a New York Bred, by a sire who has produced sprinters primarily, and the broodmare sire is Gilded Time who was a lightly raced speed horse who ran a valiant third in the Breeders Cup Sprint off a long layoff.  Physically he is a lighter framed horse who probably is going to run his best will well-spaced races.  He enters the Kentucky Derby off a spacing of six weeks.  He has more of a grinding, gut it out style and not sure that plays well with many in the field offering similar running styles.  He will take a lot of money and may get a perfect trip with his speed and running style.  Questions linger on the pedigree and the fact that his Florida Derby was more of a “Paper Tiger” win when the insane speed duel resulted in a pace collapse and not sure he loved the nine furlongs. Javier Castellano who is zero for eleven in the Kentucky Derby has the mount.  Not liking the post draw for this horse, he draws inside of Justify and outside of Promises Fulfilled, meaning he may get shuffled back and have to run a more extensive trip while going a longer distance with a pedigree that doesn’t necessarily scream for ten furlongs.

Good Magic

The 2017 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner and 2017 Juvenile Champion bagged some more hardware for the showcase with a victory in the Bluegrass Stakes.  He is slowly progressing in 2018 and was a short horse in the Fountain of Youth losing by four lengths and looking tired after that effort.  The track was sandy and demanding that day with slow times the norm, and he may not have cared for a tiring surface.  In the Bluegrass, he showed enough speed to gain a second place position by the half-mile pole and then was able to establish position outside the other leading contender in Flameaway and was able to wear him down late.  Good Magic has shown the ability in all five of his races to show enough speed to get position and make a move going into the turn, which should make him formidable in Kentucky.  The longer he can sit in the pocket; he may be able to outlast and out survive many of the contenders.  The ideal trip has him an 8-9th place at the half-mile pole and hoping for early runs by some of the other contenders.  Best chance is to sit patiently and let the field come back to him.  Workouts and photographs showcase a horse that seems to be fit, holding his weight, a shiny coat and looks fit in his gallops.  He is very capable of running a 105 plus Beyer speed figure.  Win or lose will probably be one of the best horses of this very talented crop.  All Systems Go.

Justify

The 2018 Kentucky Derby favorite has come a long way in a short time.  His first start was on February 18th and winning the Grade one Santa Anita Derby on April seventh. Critics will correctly point out that he has faced small fields of 5, 5, and seven horses and that he has not shipped.  He did not race as a two-year-old and racing “experience” could be an issue if he encounters trouble.  Supporters will vocalize the 107 Beyer speed figure that he flashes which is the highest in the field.  Weighing in at 1250 plus pounds he is imposing on the track.  In his limited appearances on the race track and while watching workouts he does seem like a horse that makes sweeping turns and is probably not the stop and start type.  In drills, he has shown the same tendency to run wide on the corner. He has tactical speed to be in the top 6 horses from the opening bell.  The price may be short, most likely 3/1 or 7/2.  If he is on the lead and outside horses into the stretch that is his best chances to win. Plenty to like about this grand-looking son of Scat Daddy.  Capable of winning, but this is not a walk-over he will have to bring his top game to defeat quality competition who will all be longer odds in the betting.  Mike Smith one for twenty-three in the Derby with three seconds.  He has broken slowly twice in his three races.  A slow break could cost him in this spot; if Mendelssohn is hard pressed to send from the outside, he could be right in the middle of the speed brigade.

Lone Sailor

A blistering fast five-furlong work recently has this horse going up many Kentucky Derby lists.  Overall record is one for eight, so he is eligible for non-winners for two allowances.  He is a closer and will be running late.

Hofburg

The Official “Wise Guy horse of the 2018 Kentucky Derby” Hofburg checks all the Wise Guy boxes.  He lost his most recent start, has a trainer that the media “likes,” is going to be over 15/1, and has shown just enough potential that all the “Experts” can’t help but take a piece of on exacta and trifecta tickets.  He was “Bet Down” hard in the Florida Derby for a horse coming off a maiden win; he was hammered, early and late and in all pools so he must be showing some talent in the mornings.  He did have to check and alter course against Audible in the Florida Derby and has the pedigree to run long, overall he is a much better bet than Audible, but the Wise Guy Record in the Derby-winning is very long odds!  Below is the updated record of “Wise Guy” horses in Big Races.

My Back Jack

He is another closer who is probably a cut below the better horses.  He does like the slop and moves up on that surface if the track comes up wet.  Lexington Stakes win was against weaker competition, and his Southwest win was slop aided.  He ran wide in the Louisiana Derby and was out-finished late.  Prefer several others on a fast dry track.

Bolt d’Oro

He is the eighth-grade basketball star who stopped growing, and everyone else in the class caught up to him by the time he was a senior in high school.  His resume is superior, and in the Santa Anita Derby, he was chasing the lone speed in a small field.  He dominated California competition when a lot of the leading contenders were not running winning the Delmar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes before McKinzie, Justify and others had even made their debuts.  So he may have been beating the second-stringers.  Again he is another who has the Pressing running style which is going to make for a large contingent of runners in the second pack.  Has been hitting all his workouts for over two months now and should be razor sharp after a duel with McKinzie and then chasing Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.  Light-framed horse and seems to be nimble.  The price is right and his seven-furlong workout last week was impressive, fast early and a good tightener.  His winning trip would be to sign around 10th at the half-mile pole and weave his way through horses.  A new jockey going into a big race and full field is another point to ponder.

Enticed

The Godolphin owned offers conflicting data points.  A strong pedigree with top sire Medaglia d’Oro and top race mare It’s Tricky ran 14 times and won 8 races, including a couple of Grade 1 performances.  He has won at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. The Gotham was a paid workout, and he just outclassed those horses, and the speed figure came back a highly rated number from multiple sources.  He had a better than looked performance in the Wood Memorial chasing the runaway speed and was the front-runner of the second pack of horses, he led until the eighth pole and received a couple of challenges from Vino Rosso and Restoring Hope.  , and he was bumped in that race, which may not have affected the final result, but I like the fact that Enticed will lay down and rumble a little bit.  He has a very high climbing stride which is not pretty looking, and he may have a little sway back, both signs that show ten furlongs may be out of his scope.  But several positives I do like.  He has the pedigree, he seems to be slowly developing, his last race was a strong performance, and I want his big bulky body in a large field.  This runner is capable of out-running his odds if any of the favorites falter.

Bravazo

Historical connections with Calumet farm as the owner, hall of fame trainer and the sire is Breeder’s Cup Classic winner Awesome Again.  He has raced eight times, and we know who he is at this point.  Lost by 21 lengths in the Lousiana Derby which is a toss out, as he was throwing his head on the turn and never seemed comfortable in that race.  They reported after the race that “he was mad” which may be one of the more different excuses ever used after a defeat.  Hopefully, he consults with Dr. Phil and shows up “Happy” the first Saturday in May.

Mendelssohn

This half-brother to multiple champion mare Beholder who defeated the boys at ten furlongs comes in with a dominating 18 length win in Dubai.  He now owns four-lifetime wins and stakes win on the turf, dirt, and synthetic.  He has successfully carried 134 pounds and 131 pounds to victory and brings one of the best jockeys in the world in Ryan Moore to ride him at 1100 Central Avenue.  Quarantine is always a concern, and losing some weight on the flight over is a possible hindrance to superior performance.  The Beyer speed figure in Dubai registers as a 106 which puts him at the top of the class speed wise.  His best talent may be that he doesn’t need the lead and this will be his third race off the layoff, and he has already successfully negotiated 100 yards from running ten furlongs while carrying 126 pounds.  He has fewer questions about distance and carrying weight than some of the other leading contenders. Overall seems like a win or nothing type.  Peak efforts are hard on horses, and if that 106-speed figure is accurate, it may be hard to ship and replicate another dominating performance.  Arrived Monday at 5:30 PM and then spent 42 hours in Quarantine.

Instilled Regard

Late to the party getting into the Derby field after the defection of Gronkowski.  Showed a lot of potential last year in the Cash Call Futurity making a “Double” move and then getting bumped late.  Ran close to the pace in the LeComte and then ran evenly, although a “dull” fourth in the Risen Star.  In his most recent race, he was soundly beaten by Justify and Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby after working long and frequently going into that race.  He looks like his development at this time has stalled.  He does get more pace to close into, but the only way to make a real impact would be to lay back and make one run.

Magnum Moon

The undefeated and untested son of Malibu Moon put the Arkansas Derby field away with authority.  He was able to capitalize on a slow pace and showing tactical speed to stay in front while Saez idled on the engine, going into the turn he accelerated and drew off to win by a widening four lengths, his second straight stakes domination at Oaklawn Park.  He has run fast; he has dominated, he has shown tactical speed, all while never racing as a two-year-old.  A few concerns do linger.  He has packed a lot of activity into a short period.  Shipping twice to Oaklawn Park and then back to Florida before shipping to Kentucky could take some of the starch out of this guy.  Louisville will be his fifth race in 4 months and only a 21 day turn around for a trainer who is notorious for liking five and six weeks between starts.  He is very fast, another with tactical speed and if he can hold his form for one more race, he may put them in his rearview mirror as they turn for home.  If the fractions are slow and it becomes a half mile sprint, he may benefit the most from that type of race flow.  The ideal trip is to sit back in mid-pack and make a quick burst going towards the leaders.  He is another who is big and imposing on the track.  Concerns do linger about all the shipping he has done in a short time.  He has speed and if he can get the sling-shot trip from 10th to 12th place early that his best chance to win.

Solomini

He tries hard but has not developed this spring to improve off his two-year-old form.  Speed figures are stagnant, and he has a running stride that hurts to watch.  Odds will be very high if you think he can improve.  Solomini in a year like 2017 would have probably been my 3rd choice, in 2018 he is not even in my top 10.

Vino Rosso

This hard-hitting son of the two-time Horse of the year (2007, 2008) Curlin improved dramatically in the Wood Memorial and may be peaking at the right time.  The Wood Memorial was good from a visual standpoint with a long sustained move on the backstretch chasing the runaway speed in that race.  What was most impressive he could move and get even with Enticed and then engage in a lengthy duel before pulling away late.  Those grinding gears could come in handy if a contentious pace develops and he may have the stamina to out-run many of the other contenders.  He showed professionalism in his debut, and although he won early, he did not do so with the raw speed he has been able to ration his speed in all four of his races.  With five lifetime races and four of them at a two-turn distance, he is fit, his races spaced out and his best performance was his most recent.  He appears to be a classic 9-10 ten-furlong horse and should be competitive at a distance.  He may not have a quick turn of foot if the pace is slow and several others kick in before he is set down.  Kentucky Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez who has smelled roses twice.  Winning with Animal Kingdom and Always Dreaming in 2017 chose Vino Rosso in this spot.

Noble Indy

Flying under the radar, he adds significant depth to the field with three victories in four starts and winning the Louisiana Derby.  His Louisiana Derby was better than looked race; he chased a horse who went and sent a breakneck pace when that horse ran out of gas, Noble Indy inherited the lead and continued with demanding fractions until the turn, he then stayed on and was passed by horses on his outside.  They were in the middle of the track, and he may not have seen them right away, he gamely came back on at the rail and showed some grit after setting demanding fractions.  His maiden win was fast and showed the raw speed at seven furlongs, and sometimes that can be a demanding distance.  I like the combination of grit, stamina and he had an excellent six-furlong workout to stay in shape.  Built with a big chest, he carries a lot of weight, and he may be the type of horse who needs racing to tone all that muscle.  Post Position #19 doesn’t help, and he may have to send a little earlier to ensure a contentious pace for the other barn runners.

Combatant

This horse has faced a series of race flows, that have not allowed him to show his real talent level.  If you quickly look at the past performances, you see a horse that looks like a second and third tier finisher with the same run in every race.  But watching the replays shows a little more talent.  In the springboard mile, Greyvitos got the jump going into the turn and opened up a considerable lead and Combatant made his move too late.  In the Smarty Jones Mourinho had the edge as the lone speed and small field.  He lost head bobs in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes that could have had him finishing second in both those races.  Overall I like him better than Solimini in the rematch, but not sure he is capable of winning this race.  If you take his stretch run in the Rebel and put that in the mix in the Gotham or Wood Memorial, he looks a lot of different talent wise.  Luis Contreras takes the mount for the first time and will be the fifth jockey in nine lifetime races.  He does draw an outside post for the third consecutive race.

The Selection

On a scale of 1-10, starting to feel a pace collapse is very possible.  I would rate the chances of that about an 8.  My selections are factored on a contentious, multi-move pace scenario developing.  A very competitive group of contenders with as many as eight horses with a chance to win.  I do think the speed will be contentious; I think the winner will be more than five lengths back at the half-mile pole.  With that in mind.  The two horses getting trips that fit that profile are Good Magic and Magnum Moon.  I will lean on Magnum Moon as the winner and use those two on the bulk of my tickets.

Winner: Magnum Moon   – Bet to Win

2nd Choice:  Good Magic – Bet to Win

Exacta/Trifecta Horses:  Enticed, Noble Indy, Vino Rosso, Bolt d’Oro