2016 Preakness Preview

Several “New Shooters” take on the Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist at Old Hilltop with the tight turns and short stretch of Pimlico.

2016 Preakness Preview

Cherry Wine would benefit the most if the pace gets too hot for the leaders.  Ran solid in the Bluegrass and could very well have finished second.  Is slower than Nyquist but fit and should like the off track.  As a deep closer he is never going to have a “wow” winning percentage to win he needs a meltdown and to run in the money he needs the right race flow which he may get on Saturday.  Sloppy track moves him up a little.

Uncle Lino has speed and comes off a game win in the California Chrome stakes.  Best races have been on the lead and ran well in the Santa Anita Derby facing a fast pace. Has some talent but faces other speed in this race and Nyquist is better than the horses he has been facing in minor stakes.

Nyquist dominated the Kentucky Derby racing near the above average pace, rated off the speed and made his move going into the turn.  The only question mark is coming back on two weeks race.  Enters the race in form and the fastest of this crop.  Loves tight turns and should take to the Pimlico surface.  I’m not sure he would like a muddy, drying out track, he has had surfaces in all his races that benefit his running style.  Leader of the pack going into Baltimore.

Awesome Speed flat out seems outclassed in this spot.  Not sure he has a pace impact and class is less than the others.

Exaggerator has turned into a one-run closer.  He may be the one most effected on the two week turn-around.  He ran hard in the Derby making up a lot of ground on a track where the race flow favored the speed and pace pressers.  He showed in the San Felipe he can be vulnerable at longer distances if the move is not timed right.  It’s possible he regresses in this spot.

Lani is the pride of Japan and thats about it for the positives.  He is slow and a Listed stakes horse at best in America.  Japan dirt horses are not world class quality.

Collected has improved dramatically the last two starts.  Taking heat all the way around the track at Sunland and then coming back and winning the Lexington Stakes in impressive fashion.  Runs well at all tracks so far and from all accounts is training well. Sharp recent winner could be the pace setter or pace presser in this spot.

Laoban is winless and has set the pace in a couple of races.  Facing other speed this looks like a spot that he will probably regress with the other pace pressure and facing higher class horses.

Abiding Star has shown speed and need to lead tendencies facing other quality speed he may stick around awhile. Facing pace pressure, other speed and rising up in class is seldom a recipe for success.

Fellowship has a good turn of foot and for a smaller horse seems to have a good engine down the lane.  Has been defeated by Nyquist and Moyhamen on several occassions.  He now has lost 7 straight races and most likely would benefit from a drop in class to actually win a race.  With the speed and his running style he could finish in superfecta.  Smaller horse not sure he will appreciate the 2 week turn-around.

Stradivari has won with authority in back to back races.  His maiden score was visually impressive but was able to take advantage of slow fractions early to roll late.  Keeneland he was bet hard and race to the works opening up early and drawing away late.  Most likely adds pace to the fire.

Preakness 2016 Selection

Nyquist is best on paper.  Best chance to capitalize on the race is straight exactas. Nyquist over Cherry Wine and Collected.