A 20 horse Kentucky Derby field calls for dividing the field in half. Today we look at The Pretenders. Horses that I’m tossing from the “win” end and from Multi-race Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers.
The Skinny – Pretenders
Stanford ran a tough second in a slow Louisiana Derby after setting the pace on slow fractions and appreciated the class drop. Facing much tougher here and running style says a pop and stop most likely. This horse wants no part of 10 furlongs.
Mubtaahij dominated in UAE but that was with inferior dirt horses and with extremely slow fractions. They crawled the first half mile and made his finishing “Kick” looked better than it was. Has to go from facing 4 or 5 quality horses to facing a full field of 20 horses and smaller track. Has to ship over and has been in training since December. They are asking a lot and a sub 15/1 price is too short.
Far Right has a deep closer running style and got the rail twice in back to back wins. Has been absent frequently from the work tab. They changed his running style in the fall and turned a Miler into a 9 furlong horse. But light work schedule and 10 furlongs will not be to his advantage. This is a slow horse.
War Story has been defeated multiple times by International Star while flattening out in the stretch. Has shown no signs that facing classier horses and going longer is going to help his stretch kick. Best move may be to lay way back and make a move. Gate problems don’t help his cause. No Stakes wins, running style puts him in contention, but he doesn’t seem to be finishing his races strong to demand 10 furlongs.
El Kabeir he was dominated by 10 lengths by Frosted in the Wood Memorial. He is probably the slowest horse of this field. Distance is an issue and he seems to be losing form. Running style is a mixed bag. Can’t imagine any scenario in which this horse wins. He’s 5 lengths slower than the top 7 or 8 contenders
Itsaknockout regressed badly in Florida Derby. Has a late developing pedigree, but was worked hard with 3 races in a short period of time. Like him long-term, but seems to be flat in the current form cycle.
Tencendur made long sustained rally in the Wood Memorial while finishing 2nd . Previous efforts were modest and most likely peaked in last race. Tough to endorse on class raise and at distance. Still some long-term upside, just not sure he is ready to peak on May 2nd.
Mr. Z has the frequent flyer miles with races at 8 tracks, but also has 11 straight losses and was soundly defeated in the Arkansas Derby. 2 demanding races in 1 month and now trying to go 10 furlongs on the class rise.
Bolo is a very talented turf horse and has run ok on dirt. He may actually like a fast pace and full field of horses to run at. Was soundly defeated by Dortmund in last 2 races. Recent works are good. Overall not getting the vibe of him as a winner, so worth considering on a few trifecta tickets.
Part 2 will have the Contenders and final selections.